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Capital Goods
Engines, Turbines & Compressors
Cummins' 39% ROCE and Triveni's global #2 slot — the quiet compounders
Medium capitalDuopoly6 listed names covered
Engines, turbines and compressors are the highest-quality corner of Indian capital goods: oligopolies with service annuities, net-cash balance sheets, and export credibility. Cummins converts data-centre genset demand at 21% OPM; Triveni is world #2 in <100MW steam turbines; TD Power rides every global gas-turbine and nuclear order; KSB holds the nuclear-pump monopoly.
TAM: Data-centre backup power ₹20K Cr+ pipeline; global small-turbine market opening as Siemens/GE exit sub-100MW; nuclear renaissance (10 reactors under build) feeds KSB/TDPS.
Demand drivers
- ▸Data-centre genset boom (Cummins, Kirloskar direct beneficiaries)
- ▸CPCB-IV+ emission transition re-priced the whole genset market up 15-25%
- ▸Global API/aero-derivative turbine demand (Triveni's US entry)
- ▸Nuclear capex: 10 PHWRs sanctioned — KSB coolant pumps, TDPS generators
Competitive dynamics
- ▸Cummins vs Kirloskar in gensets: brand + emissions-tech gap sustains Cummins premium
- ▸Triveni vs global (Siemens Energy exiting small): share gains structural
- ▸TD Power: 26% promoter holding = perennial M&A speculation
Unit economics
- ▸Cummins: 21% OPM cycle-peak, 39.5% ROCE, services ~30% of revenue
- ▸Triveni: 36% ROCE, net cash, aftermarket 35% of sales at 2x margin
- ▸TDPS: 18% OPM with exports >50%; generator ASPs ₹2-15 Cr
Key programs
- ▸Data-centre frame agreements
- ▸Triveni API turbines into US/Middle East
- ▸TDPS nuclear + gas-turbine generator ramps
- ▸KSB PHWR pump series production
What an expert watches
- ▸Genset cycle peak (Cummins multiple assumes no mean reversion)
- ▸Triveni enquiry-book conversion
- ▸Nuclear order announcements post-Budget nuclear-mission funding
- ▸TDPS US tariff exposure
Sector scoreboard — real data
| Company | Mkt cap | P/E | OPM | ROCE | Sales 3Y | Fundamental | Tech score | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cummins India | ₹1.53 L Cr | 62.9x | 21% | 39.5% | 16.0% | 85 | 67 | Hold |
| Kirloskar Oil Engines | ₹32.4K Cr | 55.2x | 18% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 61 | 85 | Hold / Watchlist |
| Triveni Turbine | ₹19.7K Cr | 54.6x | 21% | 35.9% | 20.5% | 83 | 52 | Hold / Watchlist |
| Elgi Equipments | ₹18.7K Cr | 42.3x | 15% | 23.7% | 9.1% | 66 | 68 | Hold / Watchlist |
| TD Power Systems | ₹17.8K Cr | 74.6x | 18% | 33.4% | 28.6% | 90 | 69 | Hold |
| KSB Ltd | ₹15.8K Cr | 57.4x | 14% | 24.7% | 14.0% | 64 | 68 | Hold / Watchlist |